COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PREDICTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF GENERAL EDUCATION

Abstract

The article highlights the role of prediction at the present stage of reforming the education of Ukraine; the use of a complex approach to prediction of the development of complete general secondary education, in particular to the determination and selection of objects and methods of prediction, is substantiated. Qualitative and accessible education is one of the most important conditions for the development of the economy and society of the country, because the educational system forms and multiplies the most valuable resource - the human one, which provides intellectual and material capital for the development of the country. The current stage of reforming the Ukrainian educational system, in particular its component that is full secondary education, is marked by important changes in the content and structure of education in order to ensure the quality of education of students and their preparation for life. This confirms the urgency and expediency of scientific research of problems of prediction of the development of complete general secondary education, in particular in our study – the justification of the complex approach to the determination and selection of objects and methods of prediction. The complex approach to prediction of the development of complete secondary education provides: 1) a complex study of the state of educational objects and the predictive background (processes and phenomena of social and economic development); 2) determination based on the analysis of qualitative and quantitative indicators of education development in combination with socio-economic processes; 3) identification of a set of objective conditions, factors and trends in the development of complete general secondary education; 4) studying the process of development of complete general secondary education as a complex of objects for prediction; prediction of the development of each of them creates an integral picture of the state and development of the entire educational system, enabling the development of short, medium and long-term predictions; 5) identification and development of predicting tools – methods and means of prediction. The complex of methods and means of prediction of the development of complete general secondary education includes such methods as: general science methods (theoretical analysis, comparison, classification, systematization, generalization, survey, observation, experiment), which allow to investigate the real (or past) state of the object of research; classical methods of prediction: extrapolation, expert estimation method; prognostic modeling used in the development of prediction; statistical methods for determining the quantitative indicators of the development of educational objects; normative method for calculating the needs of subjects of education on the basis of established norms and technical-economic standards. We have identified such means of prediction as: organizational (measures and regime of the process of prediction of the development of general secondary education); information and communication (means of searching, processing and storing information, electronic databases, computer programs, web-tools); material and technical (scientific-methodical and reference literature, technical devices and equipment); communicative (methods and techniques of communication and interaction). A set of methods and means for prediction of the development of complete general secondary education is variable and may be supplemented by other methods and means of prediction, depending on the purpose, objects, conditions of prediction and expected results on the basis of scientific justification. Complexity is considered by us as a key condition for prediction of the development of complete general education, which ensures systemacy and variability in the determination and application of methods and means of prediction and controllability of predictive activity. Prospects for the further research are considered for the problems of teacher training for the complex application of methods and means of prediction to make prognosis of the development of innovative processes in the educational system, educational institutions and other educational objects.