RISKS OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF UKRAINIAN EDUCATION IN WARTIME: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DIGITALIZATION, INEQUALITY, AND THE LOSS OF QUALITY

Abstract

Abstract. The article identifies the key risks associated with the transformation of Ukrainian education during the full-scale war and assesses whether current digitalization and reform initiatives match the scale of learning losses, educational inequality, and resource constraints. This theoretical and analytical study covers February 2022 to July 2026; COVID-19 evidence is used only to explain the baseline of accumulated losses, while post-war recovery is treated as a prospective policy horizon. The methods combine systemic, problem-analytical, and critical-pedagogical approaches with theoretical analysis and secondary analysis of PISA 2022 results, Ukrainian monitoring studies, and official documents. The findings show that the main risks arise from a mismatch between the pace of reform and the diagnostic, staffing, financial, infrastructural, and security capacities of the education system. Six interconnected areas are identified: formal implementation of the New Ukrainian School and profiled upper secondary education; deepening educational inequality; facade digitalization; weakened assessment in the era of generative AI; socially risky reorganization of institutional networks; and potentially segregating effects of changes in higher education funding. The article clarifies that the normative competence-based model does not oppose competences to knowledge; the criticism concerns the risk of such a reduction in practice. Ukrainian studies published in 2025–2026 confirm the cumulative nature of learning losses under wartime conditions and the need for continuous diagnosis, personalized catch-up programs, and teacher support. An original qualitative risk matrix compares declared goals, possible adverse consequences, and necessary safeguards. The proposed quality-restoration policy combines evidence-based diagnosis, equitable access, support for educators, and preservation of the subject-knowledge foundation of learning.